To have a stable population you need a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman. In the 1950s South Koreans used to have 6 children on average. In the 1980s the rate fell below 2. And in 2023 it was 0.72 kids per woman—the lowest ever recorded in history. In Seoul fertility is even lower, around 0.55. On average, about half of the women here won’t have any kids and the other half just one. What do these numbers actually mean in the real world?
A Shrinking Nation
If we go by the projections put together by the UN, and specifically the low fertility scenario (since that has been the most accurate in recent years), we come across a startling reality.
In just 35 years, South Korea's population is expected to shrink by 30%—that’s 16 million people gone. It’s on track to become the oldest country in history. Half the population will be over 65. Fewer than one in ten will be under 25. Only one in a hundred will be small children. Imagine waking up in a place where the streets are eerily quiet, with no kids playing outside. Entire cities could lie empty. Most people will be elderly, either living alone or packed into retirement homes, while a shrinking younger group struggles to keep everything running.
Society of Loneliness
Even worse may be the social and cultural consequences. Already today, about 1 in 5 South Koreans lives alone and lacks close relationships. By 2060, half of 70-year-olds could have no siblings, and nearly a third may not have any children. The small number of young adults will likely grow up without siblings or many potential friends. Loneliness could become a massive crisis. South Korea's cultural influence—like K-pop, K-drama, and Korean cuisine—might also weaken. In 2000, adults aged 25 to 45 made up 37% of the population; by 2060, they’ll only be 16%. With fewer young people to carry on traditions, many cultural practices could vanish.
Growing up in such a future will likely be lonely and bleak. Schools and universities may shut down for lack of students. Job prospects will be limited, and politics may skew heavily toward older voters. Young people may cluster in Seoul or leave the country altogether, further hollowing out rural areas and turning smaller cities into ghost towns—something already seen in Japan, where millions of houses sit abandoned. Entire regions of South Korea might be overtaken by nature.
The Workforce and Innovation Crisis
In general, a country’s economic strength is closely tied to the size of its workforce. A large economy needs many people both to produce goods and services and to consume them. Right now, South Korea has about 37 million people of working age, generating around $1.7 trillion in GDP. But by 2060, that number is expected to shrink to just 17 million. While advances in technology will likely make individuals more productive, even the most optimistic productivity growth won’t stop the overall economy from shrinking. South Korea’s GDP could reach its peak in the 2040s and then start a long-term decline. Some forecasts push that to the 2050s, but those are based on demographic trends that don’t seem likely anymore.
Another critical factor is innovation—fields like science and tech typically rely on younger generations. As the number of young adults declines, it’ll become harder to generate new ideas or maintain economic growth. With fewer people working, the government will collect much less in taxes, while needing to support a growing elderly population. That will put pressure on public services, which could be cut or eliminated altogether. Smaller towns may be deserted as resources are redirected to big cities, and infrastructure in those areas could fall apart. South Korea won’t even have enough money to invest in its future.
Economic Collapse in the Making
This will have huge consequences—starting with the economy. Even now, in 2023, 40% of elderly South Koreans live in poverty. But by 2060, that might seem like a better time in comparison. South Korea’s national pension fund is one of the biggest in the world, currently worth $730 billion. But it's predicted to stop growing in the 2040s and run out in the 2050s. After that, pensions will have to come from working people’s taxes.
To support one retiree, a society generally needs at least 2 to 3 working people. But by 2060, even if every South Korean over 15 is employed, there still won’t be enough workers—there’ll be fewer than one per senior. It’ll be impossible to cover the costs. Elderly poverty will likely skyrocket. Many will have to work, but jobs may not be available. And with the system under so much pressure, South Korea’s economy could collapse completely.
The Military Threat
And there’s still the looming military issue. South and North Korea remain technically at war, and by 2060, South Korea might struggle to maintain a military. Currently, 5% of eligible young men serve. To maintain that ratio in the future, 15% would need to enlist—a nearly impossible ask.
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